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Q2 GNP figures revised down by ONS prompting fear of recession and hope of rate cut

Author: tugsearch  |  Category: Real Estate
Published: September 6, 2008

Britain’s economy failed to expand in the second quarter of this year for the first time since the slump of the early 1990s and raising expectations interest rates will fall to avoid a recession.

The Office for National Statistics revised down its GDP reading to show it was unchanged on the quarter in the three months to June from an initial estimate of 0.2% growth and down from 0.3% growth in the first quarter.

That larger than expected revision was the lowest reading since the second quarter of 1992 when the economy was in the throes of its last recession. On the year, GDP was just 1.4% higher, the weakest since the final quarter of 1992.

Sterling and the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares fell and interest rate futures rose after the data boosted expectations that borrowing costs will fall to prevent a deep and protracted slowdown.

“This really does put a rate cut firmly on the agenda although it is unlikely to come until we have seen the peak in inflation,” said Brian Hillard, an economist at Societe Generale.

The Bank of England is already factoring in the economy standing still over the next year and has said growth needs to slow to tame inflation, which is running at more than double the central bank’s 2% target and expected to spike higher.

The downward revisions to the preliminary estimate of British GDP were across the board. Britain’s dominant services sector grew by just 0.2% on the quarter, its poorest showing since the fourth quarter of 1995.

Manufacturing output fell by 0.8% on the quarter, the weakest since the first quarter of 2005. Construction output, which has been hard hit by the housing market slump, fell by 1.1% on the quarter — the worst since Q3 2005.

Household spending fell 0.1% on the quarter, its weakest since the second quarter of 2005.

However, policymakers have said they expect a weaker pound to boost exports, helping to rebalance — and bolster — the economy. Net trade contributed 0.3%age points to the Q2 reading and government spending also lent some support.

“We expect net trade to continue to make a positive contribution to growth, reflecting the decline in the exchange rate,” said Peter Newland, an economist at Lehman Brothers.

“But given the weakening of demand in the UK’s main export markets (particularly the euro area) this is unlikely to be sufficient to stop GDP growth turning negative.”

Inventories also surged higher but statisticians said this was down to a statistical adjustment, rather than a surge in stock building which could then become a further drag on the economy.

“We continue to expect a technical recession in the second half of the year and the Monetary Policy Committee to respond with the first in a series of rate cuts in November,” Newland said. “We judge that the risks of an earlier move have risen.”

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Author: tugsearch

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